How to Stop Shipping Costs From Stealing Your Holiday Profits in 2025

The holiday season isn’t waiting for December anymore. Shoppers are filling carts in September, carriers are rolling out surcharges before Halloween, and “business as usual” shipping just won’t cut it this year.

If you want to win in 2025, you can’t just survive the shipping rush. You have to outsmart it. 

Here’s what every e-commerce retailer needs to know to survive (and thrive) in the 2025 holiday shipping crunch.

The Early Holiday Rush: Consumers Start in September

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Black Friday is no longer the kickoff for the season. This year, holiday shopping starts in September and October. According to McKinsey’s “State of the US Consumer” 2025 report, more than a third of millennials (37%) started their holiday shopping before October, and just 11% of consumers plan to start during the traditional Black Friday weekend. 

“I already started Christmas shopping,” notes millennial shopper Nicole Kammerer. “I don’t want to wait until the last minute and stress about what I still need to get or do in such a short window of time, like I usually do.” 

The consequences for brands that don’t adapt their logistics planning for this type of shopper are dire. “If brands wait until November to lock in peak shipping rates, they’ll be blindsided,” warns Daniel Cunningham Jr., CEO of Shiplo. “Costs are rising earlier every year. They’ll end up paying a premium to rush-ship and eating margin to expedite last-minute deliveries.”

A Season of Surcharges

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Another inescapable reality this year is cost. The U.S. Postal Service has announced temporary rate hikes on popular services, including Priority Mail, Ground Advantage, and Priority Mail Express from October 5, 2025, through January 18, 2026. Increases average between 5 and 6 percent, depending on service and distance. USPS explains the hikes as necessary to “help cover extra handling costs and bring prices for the Postal Service’s commercial and retail customers in line with competitive practices.” 

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Major competitors, such as UPS and FedEx, typically follow with their own seasonal surcharges. No matter the carrier, it is clear that rates are moving up. In fact, Shipflation has caused skyrocketing shipping costs to nearly triple in 10 Years (insert link to shipflation blog). 

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The smart move is to plan ahead. Here’s how:

• Lock in shipping rates early before peak season surcharges climb even higher.
  
  
• Tighten up your packaging so you don’t get bumped into higher weight brackets.
  
  
• Spread shipments across carriers to avoid putting all your eggs in one basket.

Even with a multi-carrier approach, it’s still important for shippers to lock in rates and capacity early. With Shiplo, the difference is that instead of locking in with just one carrier, they’re securing allocations across Shiplo’s network of carriers. “This way, we can plan effectively with our carrier partners, ensure coverage during the holiday season, and give shippers the flexibility to avoid surprise surcharges from any single provider,” Cunningham explains. “By committing early, they help our teams align schedules and resources, while still benefiting from the diversification and resilience that a multi-carrier strategy brings.”

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Surcharge realities aren’t going away, but with prep, they don’t have to eat your profits. 

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Mobile Matters More Than Ever

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Being optimized for mobile will help profit margins this holiday season as well. Adobe predicts mobile will drive practically all of e-commerce growth this year. A slow mobile checkout with confusing shipping options can instantly kill your sale and send shoppers elsewhere. 

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Customers expect fast, intuitive experiences and flexible delivery options – things like seamless integration of home delivery, BOPIS (buy online, pick-up in store), local drop points, and honest timelines. “Holiday logistics shouldn’t feel like a guessing game,” says Cunningham. “Smarter technology and honest communication help our clients turn seasonal pressure into profitable growth with no surprises.” 

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Betsy Martin, CEO of Vaya Connect and a recognized leader in e-commerce strategy, says that customer communication is everything during mobile checkout, especially during the holiday season. “Mobile-first shoppers have little patience for friction. Every extra click or hidden detail risks losing a sale. Auditing your mobile checkout is essential,” she says.

Her tips for building trust and reducing cart abandonment:

• Feature shipping timing, product stock, and location-based options front and center.
  
  
• Offer “buy now, pay later” (BNPL) at checkout.
  
  
• Make return policies and free shipping incentives impossible to miss.

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This year, the biggest win is making sure the shipping promises you show on mobile are promises you can actually keep. Shiplo helps retailers do that right now by comparing real-time carrier costs, balancing speed with margin, and ensuring backup options are in place when the pressure peaks. As a result, customers see reliable delivery choices, and brands avoid the costly surprises that ruin both profits and trust.

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Shoppers Demand Free Shipping As #1 Value

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One piece of good news in all of this chaos? Consumers are still spending, albeit with less gusto than in recent years. The Mastercard Economics Institute forecasts a 3.6% increase in U.S. retail sales from November 1 through December 24. That’s a bit less than the same time period last year. It is one of many studies suggesting that now, more than ever, shoppers are looking for a good deal. 

This means that free shipping, solid return policies, and transparent fees are no longer “nice-to-haves.”  As much as 76% of shoppers in one recent survey named free shipping as a top influence, and nearly a third cited free returns as a deciding factor for their purchases. Consumers are increasingly looking for ways to feel good about their purchases.

“Shoppers today are watching their budgets, but they also expect things to be clear and convenient,” Martin says. “Free shipping or easy returns aren’t enough on their own. You’ve got to spell it out early. When customers can see the value right away, they trust you and hit ‘buy’ faster, especially during the holiday rush.”

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Tips to retain customers while protecting margins:

• Set clear free-shipping thresholds (“Free shipping over $75”)
  
  
• Use bundles to encourage larger orders
  
  
• Display costs upfront during checkout

Hidden shipping fees or surprise costs can turn a “ready-to-buy” customer into an abandoned cart. 

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Carrier Capacity Cracks Under Pressure

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Some of the biggest circumstances impacting holiday profits are out of a brand’s control. Peak season means carriers and warehouses reach maximum capacity. When volumes spike, even minor disruptions — a snowstorm or staffing shortage — can create cascading delivery delays. 

While you certainly cannot control the weather, there are ways to mitigate risk:

• Booking carriers and warehouse space well in advance
  
  
• Splitting shipments across multiple carriers
  
  
• Staging inventory in regional fulfillment centers
  
  
• Offering flexible delivery options to customers

“Holiday logistics shouldn’t feel like a guessing game,” says Cunningham. “Brands that combine smart technology with proactive planning and transparent customer communication turn potential disruptions into reliable, predictable operations.”

By integrating weather contingencies into your holiday shipping strategy, you protect both your margins and your customer experience, ensuring that the season doesn’t end in chaos.

Critical Shipping Deadlines to Save: 

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Shiplo recommends a three-day buffer before cutoffs and proactive reminders across all channels.

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Ready to Win the Holidays? Plan Proactively.

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Brands poised for holiday wins in 2025 leverage Shiplo’s technology. Shiplo empowers midsize retailers to outmaneuver the shipping giants. No more mystery fees, just smarter outcomes!

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